And Then There Was One
Photograph of mass opposition protests in Minsk. Photo courtesy of Agence France-Presse.
Note: the current situation in Belarus is fairly volatile and fast-changing. The Election Bugler will release new articles on the political instability in Belarus as the situation changes, but be aware that this article may include information that will become outdated or overshadowed by other events.
On the night of 21 November 2013, an estimated 2,000 protestors took to the Maidan Nezalezhnosti ('Independence Square') in central Kyiv to demonstrate against the government's decision not to sign the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement. The protests quickly snowballed to include 800,000 protestors across the nation, and numerous 'self-defence forces.'
Within four months the pro-Russia president was removed by the parliament, snap elections were called, the constitution began reforms, and Ukraine fell out of the Russian orbit and moved towards the West.
Euromaidan (as the protests would become known) was a rare moment in the post-Soviet era where the people peacefully deposed one of Russia's vassal governments.
After the Ukrainian government fell, one of the only pro-Russia governments in Eastern Europe left was that of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus. And now, it seems that he may be going the same way.
It is time for Mr Lukashenko to go, and the West must aid the Belarusian people in his departure.
On 9 August Belarus had, what the government insists on calling it, a 'presidential election'. In an announcement that surprised almost nobody, election authorities announced that Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, three years after its independence from the Soviet Union, won over 80 per cent of the vote.
The election lacked any wide-ranging independent oversight and has widely been considered fraudulent in the West. Despite these conclusions, the United States and the European Union's response so far has been anaemic at best.
Mr Lukashenko's political rival, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was an unusual candidate, having no political experience and few political positions. Ms Tsikhanouskaya only joined the race after her husband, a popular internet personality, announced his candidacy and was subsequently imprisoned.
Ms Tsikhanouskaya ran in her husband's place and quickly amassed a large following. Her campaign promised to do only two things if election: free Mr Lukashenko's political prisoners and to hold fresh elections.
Many in Belarus believed for her victory to be a sure bet. The government's fudging of the numbers, claiming that in an election with over 80 per cent turnout, only about 10 per cent of Belarusians voted for her, outraged the public, as reported by the British Broadcasting Corporation.
Since the result's announcement protests, which have been called the largest in the nation's history, have rocked Minsk and threaten to depose the president.
Ms Tsikhanouskaya and her staff have also reportedly been the subject of harassment. After a series of arrests against her team and international allegations of election fraud, Ms Tsikhanouskaya went to the central election commission to file an official complaint.
Ms Tsikhanouskaya and members of her staff were held for hours in the commission's office and, in a video that she now says was made under duress, renounced her claims to power and asked her supporters not to engage with police. She was driven to the Lithuanian border and placed in de facto exile there, according to The Economist.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda released a statement saying, 'Not a single person in their right mind would believe that this video was recorded voluntarily'. Ms Tsikhanouskaya now continues her political work outside of the country, with her children in hiding.
It may be impossible to determine the actual result or turnout of the election. Still, a few polling stations in which properly placed observers stopped fraud indicate that Ms Tsikhanouskaya garnered around 70 per cent of the vote. However, whether those numbers would have been reflected nationally is not clear.
What is clear is that Mr Lukashenko has lost the support of his people and that the ballot-rigging in this year's election has not sat well with the Belarusian people.
Mr Lukashenko has been able to remain in power by retaining the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin and an influx of Russian subsidies. Mr Lukashenko used these funds to maintain low, but stable living conditions in the country.
Mr Lukashenko's traditional power base, the generation born during the 1940s and 1950s who have been persuaded by propaganda video of the country's post-World War II conditions, is dying off and infirm. Belarus's business and military elite, who are pre-occupied with their own problems of a dying economy and political instability have also stopped giving the president the kind of help he is used to getting.
Mr Lukashenko's strategy has also included laying Russia off the European Union, which fears that without a strong autocrat, Belarus might face annexation by Mr Putin. However, Mr Lukashenko's flirtation with the West has led to Russian economic aid to dry up (in response to which Mr Lukashenko accused Mr Putin of trying to influence the Belarusian election).
The end to large scale Russian aid, combined with Mr Lukashenko's poor handling of the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, has caused large distrust of his administration. His blatant rigging of the presidential contest seems to have put a flame to the fire.
Despite the recent souring of relations between Belarus and Russia, Mr Putin pledged support for Mr Lukashenko, probably fearing the loss of Russian influence in Eastern Europe, such as what happened in Ukraine in 2014.
However, many experts doubt that Mr Putin will be able to militarily intervene in Belarus. Such an action would be incredibly unpopular in both Belarus and Russia, which has already been destabilised after his own rigged constitutional poll July (see article: The July Coup) and protests in Siberia that were sparked after the arrest of a popular governor. Not to mention that a Russian occupation of Belarus would be met by fierce resistance.
Mr Lukashenko may also want to avoid a Russian military intervention, as it would likely diminish his position and make him a puppet of Mr Putin. The president may look to China's President Xi Jinping, who has historically provided him support, for economic and political aid.
The West may also be preparing to respond to a Russian military intervention. Mr Lukashenko has ordered Belarusian military units to its Western border (i.e. its borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—all NATO members), in response to supposed military build-up by European countries, according to National Public Radio.
While NATO denies that it is building up troops in Eastern Europe, many in the region do fear that any military action in Belarus would trigger an international military crisis.
Poland has called for a European Union summit to discuss the bloc's reaction to the situation in Belarus.
One figure who has been noticeably silent on the issue is American President Donald Trump, who has not made any strong reaction to the crisis, despite also having displayed an interesting in examining the future of NATO.
The relative silence by the Western powers became even more conspicuous as protests have escalated, reportedly involving over 200,000 people in central Minsk alone. Mr Lukashenko attempted to downplay the opposition protests by inviting pro-government supporters to demonstrate in the capital. However, Mr Lukashenko's counter-demonstrations only included an estimated 5,000 people, reports that have further highlighted the near impossibility of the reported election results, as reported by Reuters.
Video has emerged of government agents dragging protestors into vans, destroying cars whose drivers honked in solidarity with Ms Tsikhanouskaya with clubs and using extreme force in an attempt to quell opposition demonstrations. Officials have arrested an estimated 7,000 people (as of publication) in relation to the protests.
So far, there has only been one death in the protests, but injuries and police intervention continue to dog the protests.
In response, several Belarusian companies and labour organisations, including some with state-control, such as manufacturies the state broadcaster, called for a general strike against the government, effectively bringing the country's economy to a halt, according to The Guardian
Mr Lukashenko still refuses to consider a re-run of the presidential election but has offered an amendment the constitution that would theoretically limit presidential powers, an offer that was not well-received by the group of protesting factory workers that he gave the offer to.
With both NATO and Russia having a distinct political, and possibly military, interest in the outcome of the Belarusian political crisis, it is imperative that the violence and chaos in the country stop.
However, the Belarusian people have created it clear that they do not want to be led by Mr Lukashenko anymore. They clearly have not been moved by the government's claims that the European Union and opposition parties are staging a coup.
The West should strongly condemn the obvious ballot-rigging in the election, and install sanctions on not only Mr Lukashenko and his family, but all officials who were involved in the fraud and protest suppression.
It should also warn military and political leaders of the consequences for carrying out orders from a delegitimate president. If Mr Lukashenko's administration and KGB-styled police force are sufficiently de-centralised, Belarus may be able to see actual change, while avoiding a dangerous military crisis.
It is well past time that 'Europe's Last Dictator' get on a plane to Russia in exile and for Belarus to see democratic reforms and a transitional government. With the world's two powers on the precipice of military engagement, and the people of Belarus demanding change, Belarus needs visible and peaceful change.
Sources:
‘Belarus protests: Workers boo Lukashenko as election unrest spreads’. BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 17 Aug. 2020,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53796436
‘After rigging an election, Belarus’s regime beats protesters’. The Economist, The Economist Group, 15 Aug. 2020,
Neuman, Scott. ‘Belarus Protests Grow As Russia Warns Germany, France Not To Interfere’. NPR News, National Public Radio, 18 Aug. 2020,
Makhovsky, Andrei and Osborn, Andrew. ‘Protesters pack Belarus capital, Russia says military help available’. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 16 Aug. 2020,
Walker, Shaun and Roth Andrew. ‘'Resign!': Alexander Lukashenko heckled by factory workers in Minsk’. The Guardian, Guardian Media Group, 17 Aug. 2020,