Kurz Must Now Form A Coalition
Photograph of Austrian Chancellor and Chairman of the People's Party Sebastian Kurz. Photo courtesy of Al Jazeera.
On 29 Sept, Austria held a general election in which the ruling Right-wing Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) achieved a significant victory over the opposition.
Although failing to achieve a majority, ÖVP leader and Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz won over 37 per cent of the popular vote, making him the largest Party with 71 out of the 183 seats. The main Opposition Party, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), won a total of 40 seats and another Right-wing Party, the Freedom Party (FPÖ), won another 31 seats, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation.
The September elections were held after a coalition government between the ÖVP and FPÖ fell apart after the 'Ibiza-gate Scandal'.
The 'Ibiza-gate Scandal' occurred last May. German media reported that Austrian Vice-Chancellor and FPÖ Chairman Heinz-Christian Strache, along with his deputy leader Johann Gudenus, had met with the alleged nephew of a Russian oligarch. A video, which later surfaced, of the Ibiza meeting, showed both leaders discussing Party strategy for undermining media independence and other underhanded political tactics, according to The Economist.
Mr Strache is reported as saying he wanted to, 'build a media landscape like Orbán', according to Politico Europe. Hungarian Prime-Minister Victor Orbán is well known throughout for manipulating the independent press, domestic and international courts, and the Constitution to achieve his own political ends. These tactics make Orbán a hugely divisive figure, and the allusion to repeating his tactics in Austria, by the FPÖ, set their coalition apart.
The FPÖ lost a total of 20 seats in the Austrian Parliament in this election, significantly demolishing their influence. However, Mr Kurz only needs 21 more seats in order to form a majority coalition. Mr Kurz can form a coalition with the SPÖ, Greens, or his former partners the FPÖ.
An ÖVP-SPÖ coalition seems very unlikely at this point as they played a role in calling this election last May. Although, an ÖVP-SPÖ Coalition would be reminiscent to the Centre-right 'Grand Coalition' between the CDU and SDP in Germany. Although it is unlikely, neither Party has ruled such an agreement out.
However, Mr Kurz's most realistic options would either be to join with the Greens or FPÖ, according to The Economist.
Mr Kurz is attempting to 're-brand' his government as Centre-right one. Aligning himself with the Greens would undoubtedly help in that effort. However, such a coalition would be difficult as the Greens have much more closely aligned themselves with the SPÖ and other Left-wing parties. Additionally, they would also have a much more extensive list of demands from Mr Kurz than other parties, as reported by Politico Europe.
Green Party leader Werner Kogler stated that he would need to see 'radical change' before they would join a coalition with the ÖVP, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation.
This result leaves the FPÖ as the most likely option for a Coalition. The two Parties are the most ideologically aligned. However, Mr Kurz came primarily unscathed from the Ibiza-gate Scandal and aligning himself back with the FPÖ could significantly damage his Party's future prospects. Even though Mr Strache and Mr Gudenus have both resigned as FPÖ leaders, the remaining leadership is still closely blamed for the cataclysmic meeting.
Additionally, FPÖ leader Norbert Hofer has stated that his 16.2 per cent vote share gave him 'no mandate for a progressive entry into coalition talk'. With the FPÖ's diminished power and their leader hesitant towards entry into coalition talks, Mr Kurz's options are limited, as reported by The Washington Post.
Theoretically, if all coalition talks were exhausted, Mr Kurz could form a minority government. However, that would significantly diminish his influence and would make governing extremely difficult.
Many Austrians hoped that the three Liberal parties, the SPÖ, Greens, and NEOS (a Centre-left outfit), would be able to form a coalition and oust Mr Kurz. These hopes were especially boosted when the Greens received 26 seats in the Parliament, after losing all their seats in 2017. Unfortunately for those voters, the three parties do not have enough seats to form a majority.
Upon Mr Kurz's ascension to Chancellor, he was seen as the new face of Conservatism in Europe. However, he now faces one of the most challenging tasks of his political career. He is left with limited options to form a governing Coalition, and his main partners are either disgraced or powerless. Despite leading the largest Party, Mr Kurz has little opportunity to govern.
Sources:
"Austria election: Sebastian Kurz's People's Party in convincing win." BBC News, British Broadcasting Coroporation, 30 Sept. 2019,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49867930
"Voters turn against the populist right." The Economst, The Economist Group, 03 Oct. 2019,
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/10/03/voters-turn-against-the-populist-right
Weise, Zia. "Austrian far-right leader filmed offering public contracts for campaign support." Politico Europe, Capitol News Agency, 05 May 2019,
https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-far-right-freedom-strache/
"The centre holds in Austria, as Sebastian Kurz wins." The Economist, The Economist Group, 29 Sept. 2019,
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/09/29/the-centre-holds-in-austria-as-sebastian-kurz-wins
"Sebastian Kurz spoilt for choice of coalition partners after election win." Politico Europe, Capitol News Agency, 30 Sept. 2019,
Liechtenstein, Stephanie. "Four things we just learned from Austria’s elections." The Washington Post, Nash Holdings, 04 Oct. 2019,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/04/four-things-we-just-learned-austrias-elections/