In the Shadow
Photograph of new Bolivian president, Luis Arce, after voting at a poll station in La Paz. Photo courtesy of Ueslei Marcelin of Reuters.
On 18 October, Bolivia held its first presidential and legislative elections since the former president, Evo Morales, was ousted, following widespread protests against his administration.
Luis Arce, handpicked by Mr Morales's Movement for Socialism party, won the election with over 55 per cent of the vote. The socialist party also saw a victory in both houses of the legislature, giving Mr Arce a clear mandate to govern.
Carlos Mesa, who ran against both Mr Morales in 2019 and Mr Arce this year, conceded defeat with under 30 per cent. Mr Mesa was seen as a more centre-left candidate.
Right-wing independent candidate, Luis Fernando Camacho, came out with 14 per cent.
After the 2019 presidential election, allegations of fraud and result irregularities came out against Mr Morales (see opinion: Sacking Morales). These allegations, along with Mr Morales's controversial decision to scrap term-limits despite lacking public support for the move, led to mass protests in most Bolivian cities and the de-stabilisation of the government.
After the 2019 election, the Organisation of American States released a report concluded that there was 'intentional manipulation' and 'serious irregularities'.
In November 2019, Mr Morales vacated office and fled to Mexico in exile. After the resignations of Mr Morales, his Vice-President Álvaro García Linera, and the Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, the presidency was left to centre-right senator, Jeanine Áñez.
Ms Áñez opposed both Mr Morales and Mr Arce, and lent support to Mr Mesa, after a short-lived presidential bid.
Although the election was initially scheduled to take place in May 2020, the vote was delayed to October, due to health concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.
International election observers found that there were no significant irregularities or allegations of voter manipulation in this year's election, as reported by The New York Times.
After his victory, Mr Arce, a former economic minister under Mr Morales, said 'We have reclaimed democracy, and above all, we have reclaimed hope'.
Mr Arce pledged to re-unite Bolivia, after the 2019 result and subsequent controversies bitterly divided the nation. Mr Morales contended that he was the victim of a 'right-wing' and 'racist' military coup, with little evidence, accounting to The Guardian, an accusation that galvanised much of the country.
Mr Morales applauded the result, tweeting from his exile in Argentina 'Sisters and brothers: the will of the people has prevailed'.
Mr Morales returned from exile in November, after a judge annulled the warrant for his arrest. However, in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation, Mr Arce distanced himself from the former president, saying 'I am not Evo Morales'.
The former president has said that he will not re-enter national politics. However, Mr Morales retains much of his power base in the ruling party and may find himself in an influential position.
Rodrigo Riaza, an analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit said Mr Arce's victory was boosted by gains in the undecided vote, who feared the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of ditching the socialist party, which governed during a period of economic prosperity in Bolivia.
The World Bank predicts a 5.9 per cent drop in Bolivia's GDP this year. Bolivia also has one of the world's worst per capita death rates, according to Johns Hopkins University's Coronavirus Resource Centre.
Mr Arce assumed office on 8 November, which his vice-president, David Choquehuanca, the former foreign minister from 2006 to 2017.
Even with his party's legislative majority, Mr Arce faces a difficult administration, with almost unprecedented economic and health crisis, the task of stabilising Bolivia's security services, and jostling with the base of the socialist party loyal to Mr Morales.
Mr Arce also faces criticisms of being a puppet of Mr Morales, criticisms which are as of yet unclear. Bolivia must now recover from the crippling 2019 political crisis and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic, all the while giving a bitterly-divided population.
Whether or not Bolivia can truly recover from these difficulties, it is clear that the country has gone from one of the most prosperous in Latin America to one of the most galvanised and unstable on the continent.
Sources:
‘Final Report of the Audit of the Elections in Bolivia: Intentional Manipulation and Serious Irregularities Made it Impossible to Validate the Results’. OAS, Organisation of American States, 4 Dec. 2019,
https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109/19
‘From Bolivia, Lessons for a Successful Election’. The New York Times, The New York Times Company, 29 Oct. 2020,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/world/americas/Bolivia-election-explainer-lessons.html
Phillips, Tom and Collynz, Dan. ‘Bolivia election: Evo Morales's leftwing party celebrates stunning comeback’. The Guardian, Guardian Media Group, 19 Oct. 2020,
‘Bolivian ex-President Evo Morales returns from exile’. BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 9 Nov. 2020,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54872827
‘Latin America and the Caribbean’. World Bank, World Bank Group, June 2020,
‘Mortality Analyes’. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre, Johns Hopkins University & Medcine,