Trudeau Wins A Second Term

On 21 Oct. 2019, Canada held Parliamentary elections. The ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime-Minister Justin Trudeau, won the most seats in the House of Commons but fell short of a majority.

According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, the Liberal Party (a centre-left party) won 157 seats, the Conservative Party (a centre-right party) won 121 seats, Bloc Québécois (a liberal party that advocates for Quebecian autonomy) won 32 seats, the New Democratic Party (a centre-left to left-wing party) won 24 seats, and the Green Party (an environmental party) won 3 seats.

While the Conservative Party won the popular vote, winning 34.4 per cent of the vote to the Liberal's 33 per cent, the first-past-the-post voting system in Canada gave the Liberal Party more seats.

This result will most likely lead to the Liberals forming a minority or coalition government, making legislative work significantly more difficult than it was with their majority after the 2015 victory.

While Mr Trudeau did win a second term in office, he has lost the lustre that he earned after his original ascension to power.

A large part of the Liberal's 2015 campaign was to reform Canada's first-past-the-post system, which has been criticised both in Canada and abroad for failing to represent the popular vote. However, these reforms were ditched after the Trudeau Administration took office, damaging Mr Trudeau's reputation as a valiant reformer.

The abandonment of electoral reforms, however, were not the most damaging incident for Mr Trudeau.

Last August, Canadian Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion released a report accusing the Prime-Minister's administration of pressuring Attorney-General Jody Wilson-Raybould to not prosecute the Montreal-based engineering firm SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., for violating sanctions against Libya. Mr Trudeau's actions may have violated the Canadian Conflict of Interest Act, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

The scandal led to two cabinet officials resigning, and significant political damage to Mr Trudeau.

In September, a photo leaked of Mr Trudeau wearing brownface at an Arabian nights-themed event in 2001. Not only did this damage Mr Trudeau's, in the eyes of social liberals, but it gave fuel to Conservative Party and New Democratic leaders to accuse Mr Trudeau of not standing for Canadian values, as reported by the Financial Times.

Many Canadians were also sceptical of Mr Trudeau's agreement to dissolve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and agreeing to the new project spearheaded by American President Donald Trump, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Some aspects of the deal are expected to disenfranchise Canadian exporters, such as those in the dairy industry.

These events have diminished Mr Trudeau's political 'shine' and cost him his parliamentary majority. Despite these scandals, has fulfilled many of his political promises such as increasing the number of migrants allowed into Canada, and legalising cannabis, as reported by the British Broadcasting Corporation.

The most significant campaign issue for Canada this year was environmental policy. Mr Trudeau has a stronger environmental message than his Conservative rival, Andrew Scheer. Mr Trudeau's environmental record was undercut by his use of two private planes during his 2019 campaign as the purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline that runs from Alberta province to the west coast, as reported by The Economist.

Both the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party siphoned many of Mr Trudeau's environmental voters. Many environmentally-inclined voters even voted for the Conservative Party due to their new centrist stance on this issue, and others, turning away from the right-wing populism that has dominated many western elections.

The Conservative Party dominated the vote in the oil-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, undercutting their centrist environmental message.

Mr Trudeau now has the option of governing with a minority or forming a coalition government.

Unlike in many parliamentary republics, minority governments are relatively common in Canada. There have been three minority governments in the last 15 years.

However, Mr Trudeau might find it easier to govern with the support of another party.

The most apparent option for a coalition partner for the Liberal Party would be the NDP. The NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, has signalled that he may be open to a coalition arrangement with Mr Trudeau, assuming that certain policy prerogatives can be altered, as reported by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

The prospect of a Liberal-NDP coalition has been floated in the past, however, they have not come to fruition. This year's election results have reignited calls for such an agreement.

The Conservative Party hoped that the resurgent Bloc Québécois Party (BQ) might back them in a coalition, as they have considered doing in the past. Despite those hopes, BQ leader, Yves-François Blanchet, ruled out such an alliance, saying that they would work with the parties on an issue-by-issue basis, according to The Economist.

Mr Trudeau may have declared victory in this election, but his reputation is most certainly damaged, and he must now face Ottowa with a divided Parliament.

Sources:

"Canada election: Trudeau's Liberals win but lose majority." BBC, British Broadcasting Corporation, 22 Oct. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50134640

Gollom, Mark. "What you need to know about the SNC-Lavalin affair." CBC, Candadian Broadcasting Corporation, 13 Feb. 2019,

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-wilson-raybould-attorney-general-snc-lavalin-1.5014271

Kirby, Jason. "Justin Trudeau forced to apologise for brownface make-up." FT, Financial Times, 18 Sept. 2019,

https://www.ft.com/content/c334d006-da7a-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

"Four years of Justin Trudeau in two minutes." BBC, British Broadcasting Corporation, 11 Sept. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-49661235/four-years-of-justin-trudeau-in-two-minutes

"Climate change dominates Canada’s election." The Economist, The Economist Group, 10 Oct. 2019,

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/10/10/climate-change-dominates-canadas-election

"Singh says NDP would try to form coalition to stop Scheer's Conservatives." CBC, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, 13 Oct. 2019,

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-strategic-voting-1.5319931

"After the election, can Justin Trudeau unite Canada?" The Economist, The Economist Group, 22 Oct. 2019,

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/10/22/after-the-election-can-justin-trudeau-unite-canada