Impeach Bolsonaro
Photograph of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at an anti-lockdown protest in Brasília. Photo courtesy of the Associated Press.
When the controversial Jair Bolsonaro ascended to office in early 2019, many Brazilians expected a new era of political reform and clean policy, a reaction to the years of corruption scandals from the previous administrations. However, Mr Bolsonaro has failed to meet up to those standards, his presidency is floundering, his popular support is falling, his actions threaten to end civilian rule of the country, and he is falling into the same pits of graft and corruptions that his predecessors did.
The Brazilian Congress should vote to remove Mr Bolsonaro from office and create some semblance of stability and democratic order.
Many of the voters who supported Mr Bolsonaro in 2018 did not agree with his positions on firearm regulations, crime-fighting tactics, or social policies, what they did see in him was a clear and coherent message to clean up politics and fight corruption in the government. However, Mr Bolsonaro's presidency has lost that purpose and now sits in a well of uncertainty and suspicion.
On 24 April, Mr Bolsonaro sacked the Brazilian Minister of Justice, Sérgio Moro. Mr Moro was, by far, the most popular and most active member of the cabinet. The minister led the fight against graft in the government and was seen as having an unimpeachable character.
Mr Moro is a former judge who came to national attention during the Lava Jato (Car Wash) anti-corruption investigations, in which he jailed a multitude of prominent politicians and business leaders.
However, earlier that month federal authorities began a probe into Carlos Bolsonaro, a Rio de Janeiro city official and son of the president, over allegations that he ran an internet fake news network that sparked a series of protests aimed at shuttering the Supreme Court and Congress.
Mr Bolsonaro soon after dismissed the head of the federal police and reportedly forced Mr Moro to resign his post. Mr Moro publically accused Mr Bolsonaro of 'political interference' and triggered an investigation of obstruction of justice, according to The Economist. If the investigation returns with credible evidence, Mr Bolsonaro should be removed.
Carlos Bolsonaro is not the first member of the president's family to be accused of impropriety. Before the president's inauguration, federal officials launched an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro, a Senator and the president's eldest son, over accusations that he used public finances to fund illegal construction projects with the assistance of right-wing 'militias' and death squads, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
While neither of these allegations directly implicate the president, there is evidence that he was involved in their cover-up, and they have certainly undermined his anti-graft stance.
Mr Bolsonaro attempted to replace the sacked federal police chief with a family friend. However, the appointment was blocked by the Brazilian High Court, which also affirmed that a new chief would not be able to dismiss officials investigating the president's sons, who continue to deny all wrongdoing.
Mr Bolsonaro's response to the COVID-19 pandemic has also been heavily criticised. The president has called the illness 'a little flu' and has encouraged people to defy local quarantining and lockdown regulations at public protests.
The president has expressed little remorse for the rising death toll in his country, falsely accuses the World Health Organisation of promoting homosexuality and encouraging toddlers to masturbate, and continues to appear, unmasked, at anti-lockdown demonstrations against local governors and health officials.
In April, Mr Bolsonaro fired Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta after a chain of public disagreements over social distancing measures. Mr Mandetta was replaced by Nelson Teich who served for a total 31 days, before resigning due to a row with the president, as reported by the British Broadcasting Corporation.
Many of the economic gains made by Mr Bolsonaro's government also threatened to be undone by an economic recession, caused by the fear over the COVID-19 pandemic. While the appearance of liberal economic minister Paulo Guedes has helped markets somewhat, it is likely to do little good in the long term. If Mr Guedes is removed or resigns due to Mr Bolsonaro, as many Brazilians fear, the economy will likely enter a deep collapse.
Mr Bolsonaro has never appeared interested in forming a majority coalition in the Congress, a choice that has made him vulnerable under threat of impeachment, which requires a two-thirds majority vote in both houses of the legislature.
In order to sure up his political position in the event of an impeachment vote, Mr Bolsonaro has been cosying up to the Centrão, an informal bloc of politically ambiguous and notoriously corrupt parties in Congress, by offering some party leaders government positions and ministry appointment, as reported by The Rio Times.
Many Centrão leaders, such as Progressives Party member Ricardo Barros, have indicated that impeachment would not be in their interests unless the president were to lose popular support. If the Justice Ministry's probe shows evidence of graft or obstruction, he may see his support dwindle.
However, the image of him giving out government positions to Centrão, a group that the public has historically associated with corruption in previous administrations and representing the 'old guard' of Brazilian politics, may have already irreparably eroded his public image. The allegations against his son, the sacking of trusted government officials, and reverting to the tactics of previous presidents has taken away his anti-graft lustre in the eyes of many voters.
Opinion polling by Datafolha, a Brazilian pollster, found that 48 per cent of Brazilians oppose impeachment, while 45 per cent are in favour of it, as a statistical tie. However, if his support continues to erode, many centrist parties may vote for sacking Mr Bolsonaro.
Even one of Mr Bolsonaro most historically stalwart bases of support, Evangelical Christian groups, may abandon him if he is directly implicated in corruption, according to The New York Times.
Despite, all of the uncertainty surrounding the future of Mr Bolsonaro's administration, impeachment may not be the most destabilising part of the political crisis.
Mr Bolsonaro has long relied on the military establishment to keep political stability. The Vice-President is a former military general, former and current military officials hold nine out of 22 government ministries, including all four that occupy offices in the presidential palace, and he has utilised military forces to conduct 'crime-fighting' in some Brazilian cities.
This level of military involvement in government has not been seen since the military dictatorship that ended in the 1980s. If Congress refuses to act, civilian administration of Brazil may be in danger.
Despite the comparisons to the previous military government of Brazil, the generals are often seen as more centrist and restrained than Mr Bolsonaro. The Vice-President and other military-oriented cabinet officials reportedly softened Mr Bolsonaro's hostile towards China, Brazil's largest trading partner, and help to implement some of the president's more chaotic policies, according to The Economist.
While many experts believe that most Brazilian military officer's sense of duty would likely prevent them from taking power or taking steps to remove the president, if the corruption and obstruction allegations against Mr Bolsonaro turn out to be true and Congress refuses to act, they might lose confidence in civilian administration and seek to remove the president or even end democratic rule entirely.
Mr Bolsonaro's choice to rely on the military elite, led by his Vice-President, who is a public admirer of the previous military dictatorship and supporter of torture against enemies of the state, may threaten his administration and civilian rule at-large.
Mr Bolsonaro still boasts a 33 per cent support amongst the electorate, a show of a strong base of support. However, that support may not last for as long as he would like. If it does, his political allies will be forced to jump ship, causing a new era of political chaos in the region.
Congress must act to prevent such a crisis and gain control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, which has turned into one of the worst-affected countries in the world due to its poor regulations and lack of governmental cohesion.
Sources:
'Jair Bolsonaro’s dangerous divorce'. The Economist, The Economist Group, 30 April 2020,
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/04/30/jair-bolsonaros-dangerous-divorce
'Jair Bolsonaro's son a growing risk to Brazil's government'. Deutsche Welle, World Radio Network, 24 Jan. 2019,
https://www.dw.com/en/jair-bolsonaros-son-a-growing-risk-to-brazils-government/a-47223072
'Coronavirus: Brazil's Bolsonaro sees second health minister quit'. BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 15 May 2020,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52682358
Williams, Lachlan. 'Seeking to Avert Impeachment, Bolsonaro Negotiates Positions With Centrão'. The Rio Times, The Brazil News Agency, Inc., 05 May 2020,
'Brazilians divided on impeachment of President Bolsonaro: poll'. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 27 April 2020
Londoño, Ernesto, Casado, Letícia, and Andreoni, Manuela. 'Bolsonaro Fights for Survival, Turning to Empowered Military Elders'. The New York Times, The New York Times Company, 01 May 2020,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-crisis.html