Flip of the Coin
Photograph of Social Democratic Union Party leader Zoran Zaev at a victory rally in Skopje. Photo courtesy of Reuters.
On 15 July North Macedonia held the first national elections since the historical Prespa Agreement last year.
The Prespa Agreement resolved a decade's long dispute between the Macedonia and Greece, over objections by the Greek government to Macedonia's name (due to one of Greece's provinces also being named 'Macedonia'). Once adopted, the agreement renamed 'Macedonia' to 'Northern Macedonia', and led to Greece lifting its block on the country joining NATO and the European Union.
In March 2019, North Macedonia formally joined NATO and began the process of ascension into the EU.
However, North Macedonia came into resistance when a French-led group blocked EU ascension talks, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying that the bloc lacked a coherent expansion strategy.
France has since come under fire for its role in blocking the talks, and many EU leaders wish to continue building relationships in the Balkans, according to Reuters.
This stall in talks prompted Prime-Minister Zoran Zaev to call snap elections and resign his office, as reported by Deutsche-Welle. Mr Zaev remains as head of the centre-left Social Democratic Union (SDSM) and is one of the leading contenders for Prime-Minister.
Despite the blow to North Macedonian morale, the SDSM and its liberal 'We Can' coalition squeezed out a narrow win, taking 46 out of 150 seats in the National Assembly.
SDMS's rival, the right-wing 'Renewal' Coalition which has opposed the Prespa Agreement and treaties opening up of relations with its European neighbours, took another 44 seats.
Renewal's leading party, VMRO-DPMNE, led Macedonia from 2006 to 2016, through a period that had been called the country's 'dark age', due to the party's ultra-nationalist stance and distant relationship with strategic, most notably, Bulgaria, Greece, NATO, and the European Union.
Neither group can form a majority government and will likely to a group of smaller Albanian ethnic parties to govern.
The election initially received some criticisms, after the public release of the results were delayed due to a cyberattack on the electoral commission. However, the presence of international observers and the quick resolution and investigation of the incident quieted many fears, according to Voice of America.
Mr Zaev made a victory speech saying, 'our path to progress is confirmed', assuring some voters that he sees a route to form a government.
The Democratic Union for Integration (BDI), the third-largest party which represents Albanian interests, has demanded that its leader be named prime-minister, in return for a coalition, according to Al Jazeera.
Mr Zaev initially rejected the offer, calling it 'blackmail'. The talks between SDMS and BDI leaders are ongoing. However, SDMS is unable to strike a deal VMRO-DPMNE will receive a mandate to form a government.
Whoever ends up leading the new government will face the tough challenge of re-starting EU ascension talks, shoring up relationships with North Macedonia's neighbours, beginning the post-COVID-19 recovery, and ensuring ethnic stability.
While Mr Zaev is still the favourite for the premiership, the future of the newly-coined nation of North Macedonia is still up in the air.
Sources:
Emmott, Robin, et al. ‘France under fire for 'historic error' of blocking Balkan EU hopefuls’. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 18 Oct. 2019,
Georgievski, Boris. ‘North Macedonia holds first election since changing its name’. DW News, Deutsche-Welle, 14 July 2020,
https://www.dw.com/en/north-macedonia/a-54172417
‘Pro-Western Party Claims Victory in North Macedonia Election’. VOA News, Voice of America, 15 July 2020,
https://www.voanews.com/europe/pro-western-party-claims-victory-north-macedonia-election
‘North Macedonia's Social Democrats secure razor-thin election win’. Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera Media Network, 16 July 2020,