Please Step In
Photograph of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani taking the oath of office. Photo courtesy of the Associated Press.
On 09 March, two men were sworn in as president of the war-torn nation of Afghanistan. The two rivals, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, both claim to have won the 2019 Presidential Election (see article: Dodging Shrapnel at the Polls).
The results of the September 2019 election, which took five months to collect and announce, showed the incumbent, Mr Ghani, as the winner. However, Dr Abdullah claims that the results were fraudulent, declared victory, and called for a parallel government in Northern Afghanistan.
The two presidential inauguration ceremonies, held only metres apart in the capital city of Kabul, have stirred up feelings of uncertainty and instability in an important political and military period in the country. Earlier this year, American authorities reached an agreement with the Taliban. The deal states that American and other NATO military forces would partially withdraw from Afghanistan, U.S. sanctions would be lifted against the Taliban, the U.S. would work to lift United Nations sanctions, around 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be exchanged for about 1,000 Afghani political prisoners. The Taliban also agreed to disallow its members from committing acts of terror against Americans and would not allow for other extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda, to operate within its territory.
The deal also calls for the Taliban to form a separate peace agreement with the Afghani government. However, the Taliban's willingness to do so seemed sketchy before the political crisis, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation.
However, the current presidential crisis, not only threatens to undermind the Doha Agreement and the upcoming peace talks but will likely lead to a civil war in the country. The United States must intervene to retain stability with one of the few allied governments in the region.
After a similar election in 2014, in which Mr Ghani and Dr Abdullah both declared victory, American diplomats brokered an agreement, in which Mr Ghani was made president, and Dr Abdullah was given the important-sounding post of Chief Executive Officer, which had ill-defined powers, but was meant to represent national unity.
While there are some worries of fraud or irregularities in the poll, especially since the Taliban and Nothern governors loyal to Dr Abdullah blocked results from arriving in the capital, as reported by Reuters, the result is probably correct, especially as a result in Mr Ghani's favour was slim.
Most Western governments showed support for Dr Ghani, by sending delegations to his inauguration ceremony, instead of the one hosted by Dr Abdullah's supporters. However, many Western officials have signalled that they would like Mr Ghani to find a place for Dr Abdullah in his administration.
According to The Economist, Dr Abdullah has reportedly rejected an offer from Mr Ghani to form a government, in which Dr Abdullah would appoint two-fifths of cabinet posts and play a leading roll in negotiations with the government. Dr Abdullah's government also dissolved the position of Chief Executive Officer.
Before the two sparring inauguration ceremonies, Zalmay Khalilzad, America's lead envoy issues in Afghanistan, spent the day going between the two leaders, trying to broker a solution. However, neither party agreed to an agreement.
On 23 March American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Afghanistan, unannounced, to meet with both leaders. After meeting with the two, Mr Pompeo announced that the United States was 'disappointed' in the two leader's inability to form a cohesive government and that the United States would cut $1 billion in aid if the two did not come to an agreement. Additionally, Mr Pompeo said that another cut would be imminent in 2021 if there were still no solution, according to National Public Radio.
In a surprising frankness, Mr Pompeo said 'I don't want to talk about the details of what we're going to do...We're hopeful, frankly, they'll get their act together, and we won't have to do it, but we are prepared to do that if they can't.'
This is not the language or behaviour of a country poised to take diplomatic action or to engage in solving the crisis. Many observers were initially encouraged by Mr Pompeo's decision to talk to the two leaders, thinking that he would start a dialogue to broker a solution. However, the cut of American support to the country and threats made to the government shows that the Trump administration intends to cut and run, without actually ensuring a lasting solution.
This moment, where peace between the Taliban and the Afghani government may be possible, is too important to leave exposed. Mr Ghani reportedly proposed an agreement to the Taliban, where he would free 1,500 prisoners with an additional 500 prisoners each fortnight, up to the 5,000, if his prisoners were released. However, the Taliban almost immediately rejected the offer, showing how unstable the situation is, and how the Taliban might exploit the current situation to their advantage.
The American refusal to engage in the current crisis will only exacerbate tensions and make any deal less-tenable. America is due to withdraw many of their troops within 135 days after the September deal was signed, meaning that time is running low.
The United States needs to put pressure on Dr Abdullah to abandon his parallel government in the North and join Mr Ghani in a unity government. Dr Abdullah's 'all-or-nothing' stance is irresponsible and will only lead to a violent outbreak in tensions.
It is time for the United States to step in and resolve the conflict between the leaders of one of the only cooperative governments in the Middle East before they lose influence to powers like the Taliban and Russia, that are likely to gain regional control via increased military presence.
Without help, a civil war will break out, and the constant war in Afghanistan will, in fact, not be over for anyone.
Sources:
'Afghan conflict: US and Taliban sign deal to end 18-year war'. BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 29 Feb. 2020,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51689443
Shalazi, Hamid and Quadir Sediqi, Abdul. 'Afghanistan's Ghani claims narrow win in preliminary presidential vote results'. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 22 Dec. 2020,
'Two different people are sworn in as president of Afghanistan'. The Economist, The Economist Group, 12 March 2020,
Neuman, Scott. 'U.S. 'Disappointed' In Afghan Leadership, Will Slash $1 Billion In Aid, Pompeo Says'. NPR, National Public Radio, Inc, 24 March 2020,