The Black Hole of Europe
Photograph of Ordinary People Party leader Igor Matovič. Photo courtesy of the European Pressphoto Agency.
For years, Slovakia has been known as the 'Black Hole of Europe', due to the systemic corruption and rise of unwieldy nationalist movements in the country. However, on 29 Feb., those trends seemed to have changed with the anti-corruption Ordinary People and Independent Personalities Party (OĽaNO) coming in first place in the fragmentedParliamentary elections.
OĽaNO gave the ruling Smer-SD Party, a social-democratic party, whose image is closely tied to corruption and anti-immigration policies, its first defeat since 2002. The Conservative base of the party also drained votes from the Conservative Sme Rodina Party and the Neo-Fascist People's Party (ĽSNS). While both of those parties gained seats in the election, they performed notably worse than expected.
OĽaNO was founded nearly a decade ago, as the political vehicle for Igor Matovič, a Slovakian media baron, tuned populist political figure. Mr Matovič is expected to become the next Slovakian Prime-Minister; however, he will likely have difficulties forming and maintaining a governing coalition, according to The Economist.
Before the election, many observers were concerned about Slovakia morphing into a political system similar to that of Hungary and Poland, which are run by right-wing leaders, who are in multiple disputes with the European Union. In particular, the rise of the ĽSNS and its Neo-Nazi leader Marian Kotleba worried many Europeans.
However, the success of centrist parties, like OĽaNO, to hold onto the reins of power, seems to have stunted those concerns. Despite this, OĽaNO is an especially fragmented party, with a large variety of liberal, conservative, centrist, and populist MPs, which would make the formation of a stable coalition particularly tricky.
This year's election, and the subsequent defeat for the Smer-SD Party, was largely dominated by the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kusnirova. Mr Kuciak was an investigative journalist, who was examining corruption within business organisations and political parties, and, after his assassination, a large cache of information was released, incriminating much Slovakian business, administrative, law enforcement, and judicial leaders, according to Al Jazeera.
The assassination of Mr Kuciak and the corruption scandal that followed his death led to the resignation of Smer-SD Prime-Minister Robert Fico, who became famous for turning Slovakia into a 'mafia state', and the loss of popular support for his party. Smer-SD's voting share fell from over 28 per cent in 2016, to over 18 per cent in this year's election.
Mr Matovič and OĽaNO must now form a coalition, to govern Slovakia. Mr Matovič has proposed a four-party coalition between, OĽaNO, Sme Rodina, the Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS), a centre-right a Euroskeptic outfit, and Za Ludi, a centre-right Europeanist party.
However, Mr Matovič may find it challenging to balance the interests between these four parties, especially as they vary in social, European, and economic interests. It is unlikely that Smer-SD or ĽSNS would join such a coalition, in place of another party, as their stance differs significantly from Mr Matovič's.
OĽaNO also may be difficult to control, due to the incohesive nature of the party. In particular, the social MPs, elected out of Slovakia's Roman Catholic rural regions, seem somewhat unwieldily. The only real 'uniting' policy of the party is anti-corruption and opposition towards the ruling parties.
While Mr Matovič categorises himself as a social conservative and an economic liberal, he refuses to pin those ideals to the party platform. This destabilising structure could make any possible coalition particularly difficult to maintain, especially when trying to cohesively negotiate with other parties, according to Reuters.
Mr Matovič, himself, is known to act somewhat unpredictably and is known for performing in public political stunts and his inexperience in government and diplomacy worries many leaders.
While OĽaNO was elected with an anti-corruption mandate, Slovakians also cried out for legislation in the areas of migration, environmental policy, and LGBTQ+ rights. However, the stark differences between OĽaNO of the liberal urban regions, members from the religious-conservative rural regions, and their various coalition members can make addressing those issues rather difficult.
Nevertheless, OĽaNO MP Eduard Heger, who is expected to be made Finance Minister, has said that the new government will bring 'dramatic change' to public services and that it 'will be the best government Slovakia ever had'.
Sources:
'An anti-corruption campaigner triumphs in Slovakia'. The Economist, The Economist Group, 05 March 2020,
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/03/05/an-anti-corruption-campaigner-triumphs-in-slovakia
'Slovak election hands democrats vital test', Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera Media Network, 01 March 2020,
'Slovak president to ask OLANO to form coalition government after election win'. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 03 March 2020,