Sánchez Scrambles to Form a Government

On 10 Nov., Spain held its fourth election in four years. Prime-Minister Pedro Sánchez, who called the election, must not form a government to stem the tide of the quickly growing far-right opposition.

Mr Sánchez called this election in September after he failed to achieve a majority in the House of Deputies (see article: Another Election on the Horizon for Spain). Mr Sánchez hoped that the Spanish electorate would give him a broader mandate, or possibly a majority. However, his centre-left party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), lost a number of seats.

According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, the PSOE won 120 seats (down three from September and 56 seats short of a majority), the People's Party (a centre-right party) won 88 seats, and Vox (a far-right party) more than doubled their standing with 52 seats.

Mr Sánchez must now rely on other parties to retain power. The apparent rise of Vox may help Mr Sánchez in pressuring left-wing and centrist parties to back his government. Mr Sánchez's previous attempts to form a coalition failed amid disagreements with the left-wing Unidas Podemos and Catalan nationalist parties.

Two days after the election results, Mr Sánchez struck a coalition agreement with the leader of Unidas Podemos, Iglesias Turrión. Although there were little details in the announcement, Mr Turrión is expected to be named Deputy Prime-Minister, and, during the speech, he said that the party dialogue was 'the best vaccine against the extreme right", as reported by the Financial Times.

The entrance of Unidas Podemos into the government has unnerved many business leaders, who fear the economic impacts from tax increases. However, Mr Sánchez and Mr Turrión are intent on caucusing together to avoid more seat increases from Vox.

However, the two parties are still 21 seats short of a governing majority. This means that the two will have to rely on the votes of regionalist parties (such as those from Catalonia, the Basque region, and the Canary Islands).

The Centre-right Ciudadanos (Cs), lost the most seats, only winning 10, down 47. Ciudadanos faced immense competition from Vox and other regionalist parties to retain their conservative base.

The Republican Left of Catalonia–Sovereigntists (ECR-Sobiranistes), a liberal electoral coalition that promotes to Catalan nationalism, also ran an active campaign but ended up winning 13 seats, down two from the last election.

Many in Spain, and around the world, are questioning whether Mr Sánchez can govern effectively. While it is likely he will remain Prime-Minister, even with a minority, he will have an increasingly difficult tenure with the lack of a majority and the unreliable actions of regionalist and smaller parties.

In 2017, Catalonia voted, in a disputed referendum, to gain independence from Spain. The Spanish government ruled the plebiscite illegal and closed the Catalan regional government. This led the Catalan, and other regional parties, to mistrust national parties and the refusal of both Mr Sánchez, and his Conservative predecessor, to not pardon Catalan officials have significantly destabilised Spanish politics.

In February, Catalan parties caucused with the Conservative opposition to vote down Mr Sánchez's budget, an action which led to the April general election, as reported by the CNBC.

Tensions between Catalan separatists and national parties were enflamed even further upon the conviction of 12 Catalan leaders in a trial relating to the Catalonian Independence Referendum. These convictions led to mass demonstrations and even more discontent from regionalist parties.

Mr Sánchez seems intent on remaining in his position. He must now find a government in a sea of instability.

Sources:

"Spanish elections: Socialists win amid far-right surge." BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 11 Nov. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50367870

Dombey, Daniel. "Spain’s Socialists strike coalition deal with far-left Podemos." FT, Financial Times, 12 Nov. 2019,

https://www.ft.com/content/5a93de8c-0551-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd

Ellyat, Holly. "Separatists threaten to derail Spain’s budget which could lead to new elections." CNBC, Comcast Corporation, 06 Feb. 2019,

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/catalan-separatists-on-spains-budget.html