Tsai's Triumph
Photograph of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (centre) and her supporters. Photo courtesy of European Pressphoto Agency.
Note on terminology: The name of 'Taiwan' as a territory or state, is still widely disputed. Some sources will refer to the island and its government as 'the Republic of China', while some may call it 'Chinese Taipei'. The Election Bugler will refer to it as 'Taiwan', in the interest of consistency.
On 11 Jan., Tsai Ing-wen, and her Democratic Progress Party (DPP), won both the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in Taiwan. President Tsai will now begin her second term in office, as the President of Taiwan.
The DPP, a liberal pro-independence party, captured a record 57 per cent of the vote, while Kuomintang (KMT), a conservative party who favours closer ties to the Beijing government secured 39 per cent, according to Agence France-Presse.
The DPP was also given a second term with a Parliamentary majority. The DPP got 61 seats, down seven, while the KMT received 38 seats, up three. Other smaller parties picked up the remaining 14 seats.
Historically, while most Presidential polls predicted Ms Tsai to win the election, her position in Parliament was less stable, leading many to predict that the KMT (who often do better in legislative elections than national ones) would win a Parliamentary majority. However, that did not prove to be the case.
According to The Economist, the centre of Ms Tsai's campaign was on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty and efforts by the Beijing government to increase their control in the region. This strategy was largely a reaction to the power struggle in Hong Kong, between democratic protestors and pro-government parties.
However, much of Ms Tsai's liberal base was also energised by the government's legalisation of same-sex marriage last year. This action, the first of its kind in Asia, made Taiwan one of the most liberal democracies, in the eyes of many, both as home and abroad.
Ms Tsai has also overseen three years of economic growth in Taiwan, a statistic that most surely boosted her popularity amongst the electorate.
Han Kuo-yu, the candidate for the KMT, advocated for a thaw in relations between mainland China and Taiwan.
Mr Han's and Ms Tsai's main difference is over the so-called '1992 Consensus', which is a political term coined to define an agreement between the two governments over the existence of a 'one China'.
While neither Ms Tsai nor Mr Han agree with the idea of there being one country, they do differ on what exactly that means. Mr Han favours the point of view that there was a 1992 Consensus, meaning that there would be a platform for a 'one China', even if the two sides differ on what exactly that means. Ms Tsai, on the other hand, rejects the idea of the 1992 Consensus and instead favours moving away from mainland China.
While Ms Tsai's argument and animosity towards Chinese President Xi Jinping was extremely effective, nationally, it was less so on the legislative level, where local issues are often more pivotal.
Mr Han claimed that Ms Tsai's actions would provoke a military response from mainland China, and promised a 'safe Taiwan', according to National Public Radio.
Since Ms Tsai has taken office, relations between the two governments have undeniably soured. China has begun to fly military planes over Taiwan and has bullied former allies into refusing to recognise Taiwan as an independent nation.
In her victory speech, Ms Tsai stated that 'Peace means that China must abandon threats of force against Taiwan', in a rebuke of the Chinese government's military threats against the island, as reported by the British Broadcasting Corporation.
In response, China released a statement saying that they would not change their position on Taiwan, as they have claimed sovereignty over the island since the Communist Party's ascent to power, according to Reuters.
While it is unlikely that Ms Tsai's victory will lead to a military confrontation between China, Taiwan, or its allies, it will likely have other impacts on the region. With her Presidential victory, and majority in the Parliament, China may make demands for the Hong Kongese government, and its commissioner, Carrie Lam, to take aggressive steps to crush the protests there.
Ms Tsai's victory, and the KMT's increasing powerlessness, will lead to major changes for Taiwan, and the world. However, for now, the region appears stable.
Sources:
'Taiwan's Tsai wins landslide in stinging result for China'. AFP, Agence France-Presse, 11 Jan. 2020,
https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/taiwans-tsai-wins-landslide-stinging-result-china-doc-1nm6403
A.H. 'What is at stake in the Taiwan election?'. The Economist, The Economist Group, 10 Jan. 2020,
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/01/10/what-is-at-stake-in-the-taiwan-election
Feng, Emily. 'Rebuking China, Taiwan Votes To Reelect President Tsai Ing-wen'. NPR, National Public Radio, 11 Jan. 2020,
'Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-wen wins second presidential term'. BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 11 Jan. 2020,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51077553
Blanchard, Ben and Lee, Yimou. 'China says will not change position on Taiwan after landslide election'. Reuters, Thomas Reuters Corporation, 11 Jan. 2020,