The July Coup
Photograph of Russian President Vladimir Putin with a group of government and military supporters. Photo courtesy of the European Pressphoto Agency.
On 1 July, Russians finished a history-changing constitutional referendum that, amongst other measures, would allow for President Vladimir Putin, who has already run the government for nearly two decades, to remain in office until at least 2036.
Before a vote was cast, the results were plagued by accusations of fraud, intimidation, unconstitutionality. The changes had already been approved by Russia’s State Duma and the Constitutional Court, both loyal to Mr Putin.
The referendum also had almost no legal basis or precedent. There was no minimum threshold for approval or turnout, no independent monitors were placed on the ground, and there were no evident rules or regulations for its procedures.
The government’s claim of 78 per cent approval for the measures strongly contradicts with a number of independent opinion polls done in the country, as reported by Radio Free Europe.
However, Mr Putin covered the referendum item extending his ability to stay in office with nearly 200 smaller-populist measures including inflation-proof pension plans, recognition of the Russian language into the constitution, the ability for the government to dismiss judges, and the legal definition of marriage as being between a man and women, presumably in perpetuity.
Russian voters were not allowed to vote on specific issues individually but had to approve them as a package.
Another notable change to the constitution was an amendment overruling a change made in the post-Soviet era constitution giving precedence to international law and treaties, over domestic Russian law. While this rule has been mostly skirted under the Putin administration, it solidifies the Russian government’s position on international law, in the eyes of its global partners.
In May 2019 the Council of Europe (CoE), which governs the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), of which Russia is a member, returned Russian voting rights, which were suspended in 2015 after the annexation of Crimea, in the organisation, in the hope that it would cooperate with the Court and international law, according to Bloomberg. This referendum, however, seems to have crushed those hopes.
The European Union’s External Action Service released a statement pledging to investigate the voting irregularities, and discouraged the Russian government from enacting the amendments concerning international treaties.
Alexei Navalny, Russia’s main opposition leader who the ECtHR ruled in favour of in 2018 over trumped-up charges disallowing him to run for public office, described the referendum as a ‘big lie’ which did not reflect public opinion and would make Mr Putin ‘president for life’.
Despite the sweeping changes to the constitution and Mr Putin’s entrenched position in-office, many analysts say that he is not on stable political footing.
Mr Putin’s tactics and legal upheaval have always been backed up by his relative popularity amongst the Russian people. However, the brazen ballot rigging in this year’s plebiscite is unusual for the president, who usually prefers to work off the public stage.
The president’s popularity stems from the older generation of Russians and oligarchs who felt abandoned by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the post-Cold War governments. However, the sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea, the ongoing military intervention in Syria, and the government’s poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has left this class poorer and more upset than ever, according to The Economist.
For a referendum of this scale and legal ambiguity to work in the long-term, the government should be supported by the populace, as Mr Putin has usually been. However, with many older citizens and members of the oligarchy beginning to feel that Mr Putin should step aside, and almost no support with the younger-urban populations (who sparked massive 2019 Moscow protests against the administration’s electoral rules, which were brutally put down), Mr Putin may feel his political capital dwindling.
Mr Putin asked for Russians to support this referendum in front of a newly-commissioned statue, with his cabal of octogenarian Soviet-era military and political leaders, commemorating the Soviet struggle against Nazi invasion. He followed the vote with a Soviet-style victory parade, on the anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s 1945 victory celebrations.
The president is trying to reclaim his political base while solidifying his position. However, his new tactics may signal his falling popularity and influence.
Even polling sources close to the Russian government show Mr Putin’s dwindling popular support, especially in regards to his handling of COVID-19 and constitutional reform, according to Radio Free Europe.
Mr Putin should step aside from the seats of power after his term ends in 2024.
Putting aside his human rights, anti-democratic, and military policies, Mr Putin has lost the support of the Russian people, even some of his most stalwart supporters. He has proved to the oligarchy and the world that he can no longer rule with the ‘Putin super-majority’ that he once commanded.
Mr Putin’s constitutional changes was did not exactly amount to driving a tank battalion into the Red Square and declaring a new government, but it comes close.
In March 1991, President Mikhail Gorbachev asked the Soviet people whether the Soviet Union should be preserved, a referendum in which an estimated 78 per cent of voters said ‘yes’. Five months later, the KGB launched the ‘August Coup’, which was quickly crushed. By the end of the year, Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Mr Putin’s predecessor, announced a plan to dissolve the state, and the Soviet Union was gone.
Mr Putin may not be playing to the memories of his base supporters as well as he thinks he is, and in the end, the real power has always been in the hands of the oligarchy.
Sources:
‘Polls Show Support For Putin Slipping As Backing For Constitutional Reform Rises’ Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, U.S. Agency for Global Media, 06 May 2019,
Bershidsky, Leonid. ‘Europe Should Lift Russia Sanctions, But for the Right Reasons’, Bloomberg News, Bloomberg L.P., 26 June 2020,
‘Russia: Statement by the Spokesperson on the nationwide voting on constitutional amendments’. European External Action Service, 02 July 2020,
‘A phoney referendum shows Putin’s legitimacy is fading’. The Economist, The Economist Group, 04 July 2020,
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/07/04/a-phoney-referendum-shows-putins-legitimacy-is-fading