Entrenching the Dictatorship
Photograph of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at a government news conference at the Miraflores Government Palace in Caracas. Photo courtesy of Carolina Cabral.
On 6 December, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro won in a move to consolidate power in the country's legislative elections.
The United Socialist Party-led bloc, which Mr Maduro heads, won 67 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly. Opposition leaders, most prominently Juan Guaidó, the disputed Acting President and National Assembly, called for voters to boycott the election.
Mr Guaidó and his allies refused to seek re-election, claiming they didn't trust Mr Maduro and electoral officials to hold a fair election.
Official statistics put turnout at about 30 per cent, a significant drop from the almost 75 per cent participation seen in 2015. However, poll observers estimate turnout to have been even lower, closer to 20 per cent, as reported by Al Jazeera.
Mr Maduro wife and son, Cilia Flores, a former legislative leader, and Nicolás Maduro Guerra were amongst the socialist candidates who ran for assembly seats.
The National Assembly was, perhaps, the last remaining democratic institution in Venezuela, and one of the only opposition bulwarks to Mr Maduro's influence. With the opposition's standing in the assembly crumbling, Mr Madura will have little barriers to continue his controversial economic and institutional policies.
Since the 2018 presidential election, in which Mr Maduro's victory was marred by fraud and intimidation accusations, the ruling parties within the National Assembly refused to accept the Maduro legitimacy.
Mr Guaidó, the leader of one of the largest National Assembly opposition groups, was temporarily named as president. Mr Guaidó's administration was quickly recognised by most Latin American governments, the European Union, Canada, Japan, the United States, as well as other mostly Western nations.
Advisors to American President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden have signalled that the United States will continue to recognise Mr Guaidó.
Mr Maduro is backed by China, the Russian Federation, Cuba, South Africa, Iran, Bolivia, and Turkey, among others.
While Mr Guaidó has promised to stay in Venezuela until his term ends on 5 January, he may be forced to flee into exile, according to The Washington Post. Mr Maduro now controls the presidency, military, judicial system, and legislature, leaving Mr Guaidó little governing influence.
'Maduro and his regime lost all popular support', Mr Guaidó tweeted after the polls closed. 'Those of us who want change in Venezuela are a vast majority. That is why they do not dare to call for free elections'.
Venezuela has been facing rampant hyperinflation, rising unemployment, and shortage of food and medical supplies, all of which the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened.
The Venezuelan Defence Ministry reportedly dispatched 370,000 troops to protect polling sites. However, the Venezuelan government have been accused of using military forces to intimidate voters both this year and in the past.
Traditional international observers, like the European Union and the Organisation of American States, refused to send election observers this year, claiming that the environment necessary for a democratic process does not exist in Venezuela.
An estimated 5 million people have fled Venezuela amid Mr Maduro's post-2018 crackdown, according to Deutsche-Welle.
Despite a chain of economic and political sanctions on Venezuela leaders, mostly launched by the United States, the military and political elite have not defected from Mr Maduro. Instead, the opposition has fractured, and Mr Guaidó's legitimacy has been significantly diminished.
If Mr Guaidó flees Venezuela after his term as President of the National Assembly expires in January, the opposition will likely completely crumble, even though most of the West will continue to oppose Mr Maduro.
Diplomats in some European countries, particularly in Spain and Portugal, have signalled that they will distance themselves from Mr Guaidó. Without much legitimacy or military support, Mr Guaidó will see his political support erode significantly, according to The Economist.
Mr Maduro's power consolidation in this year's election may give Western leaders an excuse to lessen their direct support for the opposition government, and begin backdoor negotiations with Mr Maduro.
Mr Biden's main task in Venezuela will be to unite opposition groups in the country, a task that Trump administration officials have found incredibly cumbersome. The incoming administration also plans to directly engage many of Mr Maduro's backers, such as China and the Russian Federation; engagements that may alter the balance of power in Venezuela.
Venezuela's government relies heavily on petrol exports and investments from China and other backers. If that cashflow were to contract, the Maduro government would have a difficult time to operate and retain military control.
Whether or not Western leaders will be able to unseat Mr Maduro in the future, the Venezuelan regime has further entrenched itself in power. Mr Guaidó's legitimacy has been significantly diminished, and Venezuela remains deeply troubled and divided.
Sources:
‘Venezuela’s Guaido vows to challenge Maduro’s congress win’. Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera Media Network, 07 Dec. 2020,
Herrero, Ana Vanessa. ‘Maduro consolidates power in Venezuela, dominating election boycotted by opposition’. The Washington Post, Nash Holdings, 07 Dec. 2020,
‘Venezuela: Maduro wins total control of legislature after vote’. DW, Deutsche-Welle, 07 Dec. 2020,
https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-maduro-wins-total-control-of-legislature-after-vote/a-55836514
‘Venezuela’s regime will win the legislative election, by a lot’. The Economist, The Economist Group, 26 Nov. 2020,