Under the Olive Branch
Photograph of then Vice-President Joe Biden shaking hands with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani after giving a speech to the U.S. Congress. Photo courtesy of Win McNamee and Getty Images.
"After consulting closely with our allies and partners, with our military leaders and intelligence personnel, with our diplomats and our development experts, with the Congress and the vice president, as well as with [Afghan President Ashraf Ghani] and many others around the world, I concluded that it's time to end America's longest war. It's time for American troops to come home," American President Joe Biden said in April when announcing his country’s final military withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Mr Biden’s sentiments are in the right place. The War in Afghanistan has gone on for nearly 20 years: that’s almost sixteen years longer than the First World War, seven years longer than the War of the Spanish Succession, and three years longer than the Second Punic War.
However, the uncoordinated and politically-tainted exodus has created a military, diplomatic, and humanitarian disaster on the scale of the recent Syrian Civil War and the breakup of Yugoslavia, according to Special Representative of the U.N. Secretary-General for Afghanistan Deborah Lyons.
Mr Biden is attempting the conceal the unceremonious abandonment of the Afghan people and government under the guise of an olive branch.
Leaked American intelligence reports estimated that Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, will fall to Taliban forces within ninety days. However, that report was written before militants captured the cities of Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Jalalabad with little or no resistance, meaning the government could collapse in significantly less time.
As The Election Bugler went to press, the Taliban had begun to advance into central Kabul and took the presidential palace.
Graphic showing the zones of control in Afghanistan as of the morning of 15 Aug. Graphic courtesy of the British Broadcasting Corporation.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is said to have resigned and fled the country. Acting Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal promised a ‘peaceful transfer of power’, all but surrendering the government to the Taliban.
Foreign Policy reports that civilians, journalists, and aid workers have been summarily rounded up and beheaded in Taliban and militia-controlled areas.
When the Taliban ran the country in the 1990s, the government excluded women and girls from school and confined them to their homes, instituted government corporal punishment for listening to non-state-sanctioned music or wearing western dress, allowed (and even taxed) the production of heroin, and precipitated a major international refugee crisis.
In preparation for a new Taliban-led government, Afghans in the city of Kandahar have begun to hide controversial books and literature, women have started to buy burqas, an article of conservative clothing mandated for women under the strict version of Islamic law the Taliban enforces, and prepare for violence and bloodletting in their streets, as reported by The Economist.
Yet, in the face of the mounting evidence of brutality by the Taliban and their unwillingness to broker a peaceful solution with the recognised Afghan government, Mr Biden has remained firm in his campaign promise to end the Afghanistan War.
He is wrong to ignore the current crisis and stick by his callous policy. Mr Biden could have gradually decreased the American military presence in Afghanistan without sounding a death-knell for the democratic government in Kabul and ushering in a Taliban emirate.
For several years, a few thousand American troops forced a stalemate between the Afghan government and the Taliban, largely due to its air power in the region.
According to The New York Times, both American Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley attempted to convince Mr Biden to keep a 3,000 to 4,500 to secure the Afghan government in January.
A congressionally-appointed panel of military experts led by retired four-star Marine general Joseph F. Dunford Jr. also publicly recommended that Mr Biden abandon his deadline to completely withdraw American troops for fear that the Taliban may not adhere to the peace agreement.
Mr Biden, deeply sceptical of past American attempts at nation-building and interventionism, ignored the State Department’s and Pentagon’s recommendations and went ahead with a September timeline. Unfortunately, some of the worst fears of those officials seem to have been realised, leaving millions of Afghan civilians to suffer alone and unguarded.
The American administration claimed the Afghan government had the capability to secure the country. They were wrong.
The withdrawal from airbases in Afghanistan has been one of the most publicised pieces of evidence of incompetence in the retreat. The Associated Press reported American troops left Bagram Airbase, one of the key airbases in the region, in the middle of the night without confirming the move with Afghan military commanders.
“We (heard) some rumour that the Americans had left Bagram ... and finally by seven o’clock in the morning, we understood that it was confirmed that they had already left Bagram,” General Mir Asadullah Kohistani, Bagram’s new commander said.
The American military could have still propped up the Kabul government by increasing its air presence from aircraft carriers and airbases in neighbouring countries. While this move may not have allowed the Afghan government to regain much territory, strategic bombing could at least stabilise the Afghan defence.
On paper, the Afghan army is significantly larger than that of the Taliban insurgents. However, already low morale, changing command structures, growing desertions, and lack of outside aid have led to many cities and entire provinces to be surrendered with little or no military resistance.
Even a full mobilisation order from the Kabul government, a move that essentially permitted local leaders to raise independent militias to fight the Taliban, a move that was previously successful in stemming the tide of the Taliban military but later led to civil war, has seemingly done little to slow down the Taliban’s campaign towards Kabul.
Mr Biden could also deploy humanitarian and aid missions to help prevent further crimes against humanity or mass violence, as well as bring in much-needed resources to local communities.
However, Mr Biden seems unwilling even to give indirect military or humanitarian aid or dispatch special forces or military advisors to the Afghan army—thus leaving the government to collapse and the people of Afghanistan to their fate.
According to an article in The New York Times, citing three unnamed American officials, the State Department has been attempting to negotiate with the Taliban to allow the American embassy to remain open in the now seemingly inevitable event that the city falls to the Taliban.
American Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad is said to have threatened to exclude the Taliban to receive American financial aid and assistance in the future if the embassy does not remain secure.
The thought that any Taliban-led government, one that has repeatedly executed NGO workers and committed numerous humanitarian crimes, would receive any amount of American recognition or aid under any circumstances is despicable.
As Taliban forces advance on the presidential palace, plumes of smoke were seen coming out of the American embassy as officials burned important documents. American and British diplomatic officials are said to have abandoned their embassies and are now temporarily operating out of Hamid Karzai International Airport.
The European Unions foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, released a statement accusing the Taliban of violating the International Humanitarian Law and warning that any Taliban-led Islamic Emirate would not receive recognition.
British Prime-Minister Boris Johnson, speaking from Downing Street, also expressed concern over the chaotic withdrawal and warned the international community against prematurely recognising the Taliban-led government.
However, American officials seem reluctant to make similar statements and are publicly ignoring the almost inevitable military fate of the Afghan government.
On 12 Aug., in a Tweet tanking the Qatari government for its help in the settlement between the American government and the Taliban, American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken laughably called the peace process ‘durable’ and further refused to acknowledge the reality on the ground.
The agreement that Mr Biden and Mr Blinken are citing was negotiated under the Trump administration, where, in exchange for agreeing not to harbour terrorists and work towards a long-term peaceful solution with the recognised Afghan government, the U.S. would withdraw most of its troops from the region. The agreement did not establish a ceasefire between the two parties and did not outline a long-term pathway to peace.
Despite Mr Biden’s vocal efforts to re-vamp U.S. foreign policy and reverse many Trump-era policies and diplomatic practices, the president chose to lean into, and in some cases even accelerate, the withdrawal timeline.
The continuous assault on the Kabul government and the growing chain of crimes against humanity in the Taliban’s campaign should leave that agreement void.
Although Afghanistan is certainly not a functioning or even burgeoning democracy, the areas of Taliban control and internal political infighting (see opinion: Please Step In) made than nearly impossible, the rise of personal freedoms and increasing democratic practices showed significant improvement in the country.
Afghanistan was no longer under the stranglehold of conservative Islamic law, and international observers noted real improvements in election integrity and the rule of law in regions controlled by the recognised government.
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had been facing increasing pressure to resign after the loss of so many strategic military strongholds and civilian centres, further destabilising what was left of the Kabul government.
Photograph of passengers walking in front of a mural of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul as Taliban forces advanced on the city. Photo courtesy of Agence France-Presse.
The American, British, and Canadian governments had also sent troops into the country to help evacuate civilians and diplomatic personnel from Kabul, a move reminiscent of when Western troops were controversially sent into Rwanda during the genocide there in the 1990s, not to combat an ongoing slaughter, but to remove their own citizens, a decision that former President Bill Clinton later called one of the biggest regrets of his presidency.
At this point, unless Mr Biden exhibits a significant change of heart, the growing democratic government in Afghanistan is destined to collapse, leaving civilians and NGOs to suffer and pick up after his mess.
Mr Biden could make concrete moves to aid the Afghan government or at least help alleviate some civilian suffering while still toning back on-the-ground involvement, but, so far, he has been entirely unwilling to do so.
In June, Mr Biden said at a conference with Afghan leaders, ‘The partnership between Afghanistan and the United States is not ending’. However, he has seemed willing to abandon those very same leaders and allow not only that relationship to end but for the Afghan government to end in a torrent of violence.
One thing is has been made clear from this display of American diplomatic and military policy, however. If Mr Biden continues down this path in Afghanistan and elsewhere: 'American is not back’.
Sources:
Moon Cronk, Terri. ‘Biden Announces Full U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan by Sept. 11’. DoD News, United States Department of Defense, 14 April 2021,
‘As Taliban Offensive Escalates, Afghanistan at Dangerous Turning Point, Special Representative Warns Security Council amid Calls for Ceasefire, Aid Access’. UN Meeting Coverage and Press Releases, United Nations, 06 Aug. 2021,
https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14596.doc.htm.
‘Afghanistan is disintegrating as the Taliban gain momentum’. The Economist, The Economist Group, 13 Aug. 2021,
https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/08/13/afghanistan-is-disintegrating-as-the-taliban-gain-momentum.
Carpenter, Charli. ’Afghans need a humanitarian intervention right now’. Foreign Policy, The Slate Group, 12 Aug. 2021,
Khapalwak, Ruhullah. ‘Hiding books, buying burqas: Kandahar prepares for Taliban rule’. 1943 Magazine, The Economist Group, 13 Aug. 2021,
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/afghanistan-biden.html.
‘Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan’. United States Institute for Peace (Afghanistan Study Group), United States Institute for Peace, 03 Feb. 2021,
Gannon, Kathy. ‘US left Afghan airfield at night, didn’t tell new commander’. AP News, Associated Press, 06 July 2021,
https://apnews.com/article/bagram-afghanistan-airfield-us-troops-f3614828364f567593251aaaa167e623.
Jakes, Lara. ‘U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul’. The New York Times, The New York Times Corporation, 12 Aug. 2021,
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/politics/taliban-afghanistan-us-embassy.html.
‘Afghanistan: Statement by the High Representative Josep Borrell on the ongoing situation’. EEAS, European External Action Service, 12 Aug. 2021,
Blinken, Antony [SecBlinken]. ‘Spoke to Deputy PM and Minister of Foreign Affairs @MBAAlThani_ and thanked him for the key role Qatar has played in support of efforts to reach a just and durable negotiated settlement in Afghanistan. We are committed to advancing peace and stability in the region.’ Twitter, 12 Aug. 2021,
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1425986711880970240.
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